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Against the backdrop of the widespread uncertainty following the United States attacks on Venezuela, the capture of leader Nicolás Maduro, and the declaration by Donald Trump that the US will “control” the country and “seize control of the oil”, one thing is clear – this establishes a deeply alarming precedent.

A Dark Legacy and an Unprecedented Move

The United States possesses a dark record of meddling, military incursions, and control in Latin America, but the recent overnight operation marked its premier large-scale offensive on the continent of South America. “US supremacy in this hemisphere shall not be challenged from now on,” Mr Trump declared.

The decision to unilaterally attack another state and seize its president – just a short time after he publicly sought an off-ramp – has still wider repercussions. This ought to concern everyone.

A Nation Left in Limbo

Venezuelans have lived through a dictatorship marked by theft and failure under Mr Maduro, commonly thought to have fraudulently won the most recent election. They now face a future of deep insecurity. Mr Trump has remarked that Maduro's second-in-command, Delcy Rodríguez would do as the US says, and dismissed prominent critic and Nobel prize-winner María Corina Machado as a plausible replacement.

However, Ms Rodríguez, now the interim president, has so far sounded notes of defiance – and other factions of the leadership-stricken government are even more hardline.

A Shift in Global Role

A man who won power promising to abandon foreign wars now says he is “unconcerned about deploying troops”. Renaming the Department of Defense as the Department of War was a substantive signal. He no longer views the world’s superpower as a guardian of order; he is turning it into a renegade nation.

He holds the view that the United States' strength permits it to do as it wishes with scant penalty: consider the military actions against Nigeria and Iranian installations. He claims that the oil resources of Venezuela means this new undertaking “will pay for itself”.

A Move Devoid of International Legitimacy

George W. Bush launched the invasion of Iraq on a lie. But this unlawful assault came absent any United Nations mandate or congressional approval; Democrats were not even informed and say they were actively misled in briefings. Mr Trump is not trying to twist international norms, but to shatter them.

Disregard the implication this carries to leaders in Moscow, Beijing, and beyond, and question the future path of the United States. While the raid allegedly resulted in the deaths of 40 Venezuelans, including civilians, no US personnel died. Mr Trump’s increasing belief in his impunity will likely encourage further adventurism.

The Stated Reason Versus the Real Aims

No one buys the excuse that this is related to the drug trade. Venezuela is only a secondary pathway for cocaine; Mr Trump recently granted clemency to the former Honduran president Juan Orlando Hernández for related criminal convictions. Mr Trump himself made it clear that he is driven by the lure of oil as well as machismo, the ideology of some in his administration, and the quest for a legacy as his support at home declines.

Tepid International Response and Waning Global Governance

The international response, especially in Europe, has – with a few principled deviations – been alarmingly quiet. That’s not due to Mr Maduro’s sins, but trepidation regarding Mr Trump’s wrath. The strong reaction from UN Secretary General António Guterres was welcome, but this episode highlights the waning power of international bodies.

Mr Trump’s isolationist supporters at home could yet press him to focus on domestic issues once more – but escalating insurance prices, economic unhappiness and ongoing controversies make foreign conflicts more appealing.

It has been less than 12 months into his four-year term. The international community may come to rue the day if they stay silent now, given what – and who – could be next.