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Only two days prior to the New York race for mayor, Michael Lange issued a bold electoral prediction – not just who would win overall, and block by block. Lange, an expert in elections who grew up in New York City, has spent more than ten years in progressive politics and has become a kind of well-known figure recently for his deep dives into city data and voter surveys.

He published his extremely precise forecast map – which correctly forecast that the progressive candidate would win while failed to predict the independent candidate’s strong performance – on his newsletter, his platform. He has a flair for witty coinages. He pointed out, as an example, the split between the progressive stronghold, stretching from Park Slope to another area to a third locale, where he predicted (accurately) that the left-wing candidate would win by large leads, and the conservative-leaning zone on Manhattan’s Upper East and Upper West Sides. In those areas, certain media outlets and Wall Street Journal outrank the New York Times” in audience and most voters favored the independent, who ran as a conservative-courting independent.

Voting Day Patterns and Unexpected Results

What was your night?

I had to do that because they were adding around 200,000 votes into the tally every few minutes! I felt somewhat anxious at the beginning: Mamdani led the initial ballots by a dozen percentage points, but came large groups of ballots that came in after that and his lead dropped from 12% to 8%. It was concerning.

Understand, there was a world where election day turned out somewhat badly for him, where the opponent would have essentially doubling his votes from the Democratic primary. But the winner added half a million votes to his initial base, and this was critical why he won. He campaigned and massively expanded his support from the first round.

Expanding Support

How did Mamdani get additional support from?

He built the coalition that the left always wanted to build: diverse racially, youthful, tenants and individuals facing cost pressures. He gained significantly with minority communities, everyday New Yorkers, compared to the primary. Additionally he further maximized his base of left-leaning activists, young leftists, and immigrant groups. Victory required without expanding his appeal.

He built the coalition that progressives always wanted to build: diverse, youthful, renters and residents squeezed by affordability

There were also some Trump/Mamdani voters – is this significant?

It’s definitely a real thing, confined to Hispanic laborers, Asian communities and Muslims. Voters in immigrant strongholds that supported Trump last year went for Zohran now. But it’s not that he was gaining Caucasian laborers and Maga voters.

Voter Participation and Impact

One of the big stories of the night was the sky-high turnout. Who benefited?

Both sides. Participation was much greater than anticipated. I thought it could go over two million, but it’s closer to 2.3 million – that is a huge number of participants. Existed a substantial anti-Mamdani block, energized, but his supporters was also motivated, and that sufficed to win.

You forecasted he’d exceed half the ballots. Is he on course for that?

Currently you would say he’s favored to surpass half. He has just over 50% but remain probably 200,000 votes left to report at that time. Thus it’s not certain, but I believe it’s likely, and I wish he does because afterwards no one can say Sliwa was a spoiler.

GOP Decline

Curtis Sliwa, the conservative contender, was another surprise. His support plummeted.

He didn’t win a single precinct in any area. Not even one neighborhood in the borough, which is like an highly conservative area. That truly surprised me. The independent held Caucasian districts, affluent zones and very religiously Jewish areas, and plus gained all of these conservatives on the island with a strong turnout. I think there was a lot of tactical voting by the Republicans. They were doing it before the former president endorsed for the candidate, but that definitely helped. It could have even turned the tide if the winning alliance failed to expand.

The “Commie Corridor”

Regarding your much mentioned left-wing base – did backing for Mamdani dominant in those parts of Brooklyn and Queens?

I think there was a little dilution of the progressive zone in some areas like Astoria or Greenpoint that have older Caucasian residents. There, for example, the property owners and homeowners all went for the independent. Thus there existed a little resistance. But overall, largely the commie corridor is another huge reason why Zohran prevailed – he was polling between 77% and 83% in specific neighborhoods.

Jewish Voters

In the lead-up to the vote we reported on whether the candidate was making inroads with the community. Any indication that he did?

Exist areas with many non-religious and left-inclined voters – such as specific locales – where he did well. However in the wealthy Jewish communities like the Upper East Side, his Middle East stance definitely mattered in those places. Similarly in the more middle-class Jewish areas including Forest Hills, Rego Park, or Spuyten Duyvil and Riverdale – they favored the independent. Plus, there are Jewish immigrants from Eastern Europe in the borough, who were pretty staunchly supportive. Therefore it’s unclear if existed major surprises on this one, but he retained more progressive Jewish neighborhoods and even parts of the Upper West Side by big margins.

Political Impact

Has Mamdani rewritten what the city represents in politics? Will progressive base become a launch pad for leftwing candidates?

Yes, it’s not accidental that key figures from progressives hail from a handful of neighborhoods in Brooklyn, Queens and the Bronx. I’m sure that there will be more of that – people will come from these areas to be promoted to higher office.

However I believe that each urban center in America could develop their own commie corridor. Urban places are the epicenters of leftwing power in the nation – because youth reside there, tenancy is common and they are places where people are crushed by the disparities we face.