Everyday Killings in Mexico Decline 37% During President Sheinbaum, Per Official Figures

The typical figure of everyday murders each month in the country has fallen by more than a third since Head of State Claudia Sheinbaum took office, per new administrative figures. However, public safety specialists have cautioned that homicide data may not point to improved national security.

Notable Drop in Per-Day Numbers

Officials reported an mean of close to 55 homicides a day in last November versus roughly 87 when the President assumed the presidency in the previous September. This announcement was delivered by the chief of the country’s federal safety agency, Marcela Figueroa Franco, during the president’s daily press briefing on Tuesday.

“The outcome in killings that have been recorded during these past months is remarkably important,” the President said, noting that last month the least amount of homicides were recorded for any November in the last 10 years.

Historical Context and Official Strategy

Violent drug cartel rivalries, combined with the government’s heavily militarised campaigns to combat the drug gangs, have made Mexico’s homicide rate escalate in recent times. The rate hit a maximum of 36,773 homicides in 2020, according to the country’s national statistics office.

That gave Mexico a homicide figure more than 4x higher than the United States. Since then, homicides have been on the decrease, falling to 33,550 the previous year. Claudia Sheinbaum has linked her national security strategy for an apparently more pronounced drop in homicides this year.

At a media briefing in August, the Mexican leader declared: “There is a plan, there is tracking of the plan, and we have specific tracking municipality by municipality in some cases. The plan is effective. And we have to continue working at it each day.”

The key components of Sheinbaum’s security plan involve:

• Reinforcing Mexico’s national guard.
• Improving intelligence and investigation work.
• Enhanced coordination between various departments.

Expert Caution and Statistical Concerns

But, public safety researchers cautioned that using murder data to assess the situation of peace was flawed. This is especially true in light of the uptick in different criminal activities such as people going missing.

“It would be positive news if this were a decrease, but I think we can’t just look at the homicide data and conclude: ‘Oh well, excellent,’” stated Cecilia Farfán-Méndez, an authority on Mexico's cartels. “I would be cautiously positive.”

As reported by the policy research thinktank Mexico Evalúa, homicides in total dropped by more than 20% in the initial 10 months of the current year versus the same timeframe the previous year. Yet, disappearances have gone up by 15% and in some states have increased by up to 200%.

“Numbers on homicides is not reliable for estimating the situation of insecurity,” stated Armando Vargas, a safety expert at Mexico Evalúa. “First, we have law enforcement and investigators who do not have the capacity or the desire to correctly recognize and classify corpses. Second, organised [criminals] … have the capability to mask violent acts through abductions.”

Vargas pointed out that relying on month-to-month averages of everyday killings was similarly an issue because it may obscure periods when there were notably elevated numbers of murders.

“Employing the daily average renders spikes of violent crime unseen,” he said.

Arrests and Confiscations as Metrics of Success

Where the administration can highlight the success of its security strategy is on arrests and seizures. Nearly 40,000 individuals were apprehended between last October and this past November for serious crimes, according to official data. More than 20,000 firearms were taken and 311 tons of drugs seized.

“Donald Trump cannot claim President Sheinbaum of doing nothing, because actually she is accomplishing a lot with these many thousands of arrests, thousands of confiscations, and all the operational degrading of organised crime. It’s extremely politically beneficial,” said Vargas.

Persistent Violence and Public Anger

However despite these measures, Mexico remains beset by severe violence, with several states in the grip of cartel-fueled bloodshed. Last month there was a high-profile assassination of a well-liked mayor in the state of Michoacan, among 10 local leaders killed in the past year.

Weeks later, thousands of youth took to the streets in Mexico City and across the country to voice their anger at corruption and cartel violence.

“The federal government shares [data] in a manner to construct a story of safety. Politically it’s highly effective, socially it’s highly debatable,” the analyst said.