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For a brief period, the former US president gave the impression to take a resolute position on Ukraine. After delivering warnings of "serious consequences" last August should Russia's president persisted blocking peace talks, the former president eventually introduced major sanctions on Russia's biggest petroleum corporations, Rosneft and Lukoil. This decision seriously affected the Russian leader's capacity to fund his military invasion in the region.

Yet, through his recently unveiled detailed peace plan for Ukraine, reportedly drafted by both nations' diplomats excluding Ukrainian or EU involvement, Trump has apparently returned to his Russia-friendly position.

Benefiting Military Action

Trump's initiative would essentially reward Putin for invading Ukraine while putting the country's democratic system in danger. Despite strong declarations that "Ukraine's autonomy will be affirmed", significant aspects of the initiative actually weaken that essential independence. Seen as a Moscow's wish would certainly be a disaster for Ukraine.

Reflecting his corporate past, Trump seems to treat the Ukrainian conflict as a basic border issue, like handing Russia a part of Ukraine's land will satisfy the ruler. Yet, Russia's war is not only about controlling a damaged area of deindustrialized land in eastern Ukraine. Rather, it is about the nation's political system – and Putin's clear goal to weaken it so it stops acts as an attractive model for the Russian people of the responsible leadership that Putin's increasing autocracy withholds them.

Border Giveaways

Although freezing in position the presently divided oblasts of Kherson and Zaporizhzhia, the plan would force the nation to give up the entire this eastern territory. Beyond benefiting the Russian Federation with land that its forces have been unsuccessful to capture in exceeding a ten years of conflict, this concession would leave Ukrainian military defenses severely compromised.

This region is the place of Ukraine's highly-touted "defensive line", the well-established military defenses that are a critical barrier to Russian advances. Trump would have the Ukrainian military leave these defenses, giving Russian forces a clear way to Kyiv in case he eventually opt to renew the hostilities.

Military Limitations

Additionally, in a step that would enable additional conflict simpler for the Russian military, Trump would mandate Ukraine to diminish the scale of its military from their existing 800,000 to 850,000 troops to a limit of 600,000. Notably, the initiative places no similar restrictions on Russia's military.

Seemingly as a accommodation to Putin's campaign to characterize the nation's legitimate leadership as extremists, Trump's proposal asserts: "Every radical belief system and activities must be condemned and banned." As if to underscore this aspect, it insists that "The nation will hold democratic votes in three months" of a truce. At the same time, Trump sets no requirement that Putin jeopardize his regime by holding votes in his own country.

Security Commitments

To be sure, the initiative makes Russia commit not to "enter other states" and to "incorporate in law its position of non-aggression towards European nations and the Ukrainian people". But taking into account that the Russian leadership has breached comparable treaties in the past – including the 1994 agreement, in which the Russian government committed to honor Ukraine's sovereignty in return for giving up its Soviet-era nuclear weapons, and the previous peace deals, in which Moscow committed to a halt in fighting and a handback of occupied areas in the Donbas to Ukrainian control – for what reason should the international community believe Putin on this occasion?

That is why the Ukrainian government has been so determined on external security guarantees. Although the plan warns of a "strong joint armed reaction" if Russia resume its aggression, and states that "The nation will receive dependable protection assurances", the specifics range from vague to concerning. The proposal would not just block the nation alliance membership but also prevent member states from positioning military personnel on Ukrainian territory, thereby preventing the reassurance force, presumptively headed by the UK and France, on which the Ukrainian government had been depending to stop Putin from replenishing his weakened troops, re-equipping, and resuming aggression.

International Concern

Another parallel deal apparently would provide the nation with a alliance-like protection assurance, in which any later "significant, deliberate, and continuous aggression" by the Russian Federation on Ukraine "will be treated as an act of war jeopardizing the stability and safety of the Western nations." This indicates a military response. But different from a capable Ukraine's armed forces – the nation's most reliable protection against additional hostilities – the effectiveness of the parallel accord would hinge on the commitment of Western powers, such as Trump, to act militarily to Russia's aggression, a response they have {not